Every day the government makes new mistakes or discovers new economic consequences of their past errors. Arbitrary Vote brings you the country's biggest economic bloopers.
t Blooper of the week Blooper of the month
5/11/09 - Obama gains clarity on health care destruction plan
Obama says health care costs are "out of control". And the highly improbable $2 trillion saved over 10 years from his developing plan takes a giant chunk out of the $40 trillion+ problem caused by the current universal health care model, Medicare. It makes perfect sense to solve one cost-sink model with a model that basically replicates it on a larger scale. A model that brings the quality of health care right down the drain with it.
5/8/09 - Better unemployment numbers than expected!
Would be fabulous if it still wasn't 539,000 and at the highest level in 25 years...Plus the 66,000 temporary federal jobs added that were not created by an improving economy...Plus the 65,000 jobs subtracted as a "seasonal adjustment"...Plus the 30,000 that will likely be added in the revision for April just as this number was added after the fact for February and March...Making the likely 700,000 jobs lost the highest yet during this recession.
5/7/09 - Surprise! Stress test results were great!
We're back! The banks are in fine shape and the economy is healing. Only $75 billion more to go and everything will be A-OK. Of course these results consider a worst case scenario that is about where we already are. Of course these stress-test models have been consistently inaccurate in the past, even when conducted and tweaked for 20-year periods (this one has been months). Of course these results don't consider the estimated $1.6 trillion of losses to come from the next wave of Alt-A and Option ARM residential mortgages, along with the expected hundreds of billions of dollars in commercial real estate defualts, both expected to begin triggering with significance in the second half of this year and peaking in 2010 and 2011. But no matter - the banks are healthy and we're recovering.
5/6/09 - Another hint from China about currency devaluation
These people in China keep giving us hints about this whole dollar devaluation thing. Bernanke doesn't like hints - he can solve our problems without hints. He knows exactly what to do to fix everything. He must also know exactly how many hints China will give us before the rug is pulled out from under us.
Congratulations to Mr. Bernanke. He has fixed the economy and saved the world. Or he has been watching the news and believes what they tell him. Or he believes what he has made up and told the media and then watches the news and believes what it tells him. Bernanke: Signs recession’s strength is waning - MSNBC/Associated Press
5/4/09 - Obama stimulates economy through more taxes
A very wise move during an economic crisis. Certainly will do wonders for our global competitiveness while reviving our economy. Additionally, the protectionism baked into the action will surely strengthen international relations. Yet another solid step toward stifiling the entire U.S. economy.
5/1/09 - Bank stress test results postponed - again
It must be that the banks are so healthy they want to make everybody wait a little longer for the good news. It's certainly not that there is any infighting or attempts to sugarcoat the results.
Billions of taxpayer dollars and months later, what was originally clear and inevitable finally comes to fruition. Well-run government auto business #2, GM, is next. Chrysler files for bankruptcy protection - MSNBC/Associated Press
4/29/09 - First round Q1 GDP not quite what the "experts" thought
For the last quarter of 2008, the initial GDP calculation was a decline of 3.8%. The second and last revision for that quarter put the decline at 6.3%. For the first quarter of 2009, the initial GDP calculation is a decline of 6.1% - far beyond the expert estimated range of 4.6% to 5.1%. Wonder what the next two first quarter revisions will bring...
We're saved! Two super-government organizations are going to figure out which of them has the most printers and ink so that enough money can be printed to fix everything!
4/24/09 - Good news about durable goods that is really bad news
Durable goods are not improving, they are still low and obviously turned south again for the latest month after a small uptick the month before. Just as the stock markets receive bounces on a given ride down, so do other economic indicators. The media continues driving its confidence-building bandwagon while being economically ignorant.
Obama to his voter base: Hey everybody - You signed a contract you didn't read when you wanted a credit card. You then racked up a bunch of debt and can't afford to pay it off. For the time being we'll continue our philosophy of voiding contracts to make your lives a little easier. For the longer term, don't worry - we'll have the banks nationalized soon, the government will then hand out limitless credit cards to everybody, we'll cover any mass defaults to contribute nicely to eventual hyperinflation, and ultimately make your debt worthless and you absolved. Enjoy the ride!
4/22/09 - New markets created by bailed out businesses
For anyone striving to understand how free markets work - when a business fails, it doesn't go out of business, but it gets bailed out by the government. The business then focuses its strategy on non-market driven products and services that the government defines and markets do not demand. However, the real areas of value emerge as the business hones its tactics toward competing against other bailed out organizations for future government funding (aka "revenue"). The country's citizens don't actually get any new products or services that they need, but huge markets for lobbyists, political law firms, special interest groups, etc rapidly form to create a burgeoning fascist economy.
4/21/09 - IMF $4.1 trillion loss estimate likely to be 100% accurate
The IMF, being a super-governmental organization, is highly skilled in its assessments of the financial impact of the economic crisis. They're now projecting $4.1 trillion in overall losses. Included in this estimate is a valuation of losses from U.S.-orginated loans and assets. Their first guess for this portion of the $4.1 trillion was $1.4 trillion 6 months ago, then revised to $2.2 trillion three months later, and now revised to $2.7 trillion. Obviously they are certain of their latest estimate and we can all begin planning around this number.
But wait...All the big bank quarterlies are coming in strong...It couldn't be firesale forced mergers, government cash infusions, changed accounting rules, etc making a temporary rosey illusion out of their financial conditions, could it? Banks Likely Face $400 Billion More in Losses, JPMorgan Says - Bloomberg
4/17/09 - EPA uses scare tactic to justify hurting the economy
The key warming gas "health threats" the EPA sites to support its increased power are stronger heat waves, increased smog in some areas, flooding, and diseases that don't currently occur in the U.S. Not only are these not direct threats to health, but they assume greenhouse gases are the key cause of global warming when this clearly has not been concluded.
As new EPA policies add to the demise of our economy (as past policies already have), what policies will save people's health when everyone's money runs out?
Let's see...Our government-owned Amtrak railroad passenger organization has a long track record of losing money, charges prices that are often higher than most plane tickets, and is operating in a country with one of the lowest inter-city rail usages in the developed world. A new high-speed rail service is just what we need!
Interesting...A down economy that includes layoffs, less spending, and declining property values translates into less tax revenue for the government. It's a good thing the government is increasing its spending with a bunch of new money that it doesn't have.
Unexpectedly? How could such an unheard of phenomenon take place in an economic crisis when debt is high, savings is low, and layoffs are massive and constant?
It appears that in addition to the president, a large percentage of the country would like to adopt an economic model (socialism) that has never worked and will cause lasting pain to all. Just 53% Say Capitalism Better Than Socialism - Rasmussen Reports
Blooper of the week 
Blooper of the month
We're back! The banks are in fine shape and the economy is healing. Only $75 billion more to go and everything will be A-OK. Of course these results consider a worst case scenario that is about where we already are. Of course these stress-test models have been consistently inaccurate in the past, even when conducted and tweaked for 20-year periods (this one has been months). Of course these results don't consider the estimated $1.6 trillion of losses to come from the next wave of Alt-A and Option ARM residential mortgages, along with the expected hundreds of billions of dollars in commercial real estate defualts, both expected to begin triggering with significance in the second half of this year and peaking in 2010 and 2011. But no matter - the banks are healthy and we're recovering.
For the last quarter of 2008, the initial GDP calculation was a decline of 3.8%. The second and last revision for that quarter put the decline at 6.3%. For the first quarter of 2009, the initial GDP calculation is a decline of 6.1% - far beyond the expert estimated range of 4.6% to 5.1%. Wonder what the next two first quarter revisions will bring...
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