There are actually many estimates for the entitlement shortfall. Those you mention are a couple of estimates toward the bottom and top of the range. The disparity is due to several variables that are difficult to predict. However, it is probably safe to say that the government's estimates are most conservative and underestimated.

Some of the unknown variables that cause such a wide range of predictions are:
1. The lifespan of those collecting
2. The number of people collecting (based on death and individual decisions)
3. Increasing costs of healthcare
4. Interest rate fluctuations
5. The date individuals decide to begin collecting, which impacts total accumulated value and can impact payment size in the case of Social Security
6. The government's likely eventual intervention to change eligibility requirements (the age people are eligible to collect) and payment sizes because of the shortfalls.

I'm sure the numbers mentioned are over different time periods. Whatever the true figure is it is astronomical, elected leaders have ignored this looming monster for so long it may well be too late to adequately address.

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