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Monitor Fall & Winter 2009/10 Economic Events *** UPDATED 2/4/10 *** The diagram below was used in the Arbitrary Vote 9/14/09 "Why This Fall and Winter Could Get Ugly" update article. The diagram corresponds to the discussed topics outlined within the article. Below the diagram are many sources used to derive statistics and information for the article. This list of sources will be updated periodically as new evidence is released throughout the approaching fall and winter months. Check back occasionally for updates.
Current Activities and Conditions
Commercial real-estate 2009 - The Credit Crisis in Commercial Real Estate - REIT.com 8/18/09 - Commercial real estate gets worse - USA Today 8/31/09 - Commercial Real Estate Lurks as Next Potential Mortgage Crisis - The Wall Street Journal 9/4/09 - Commercial Real Estate: Big Troubles, Small Bailout - Forbes ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/21/09 - Commercial Real-Estate Price Drop Quickens In July -Moody's - The Wall Street Journal 10/7/09 - Office Rents Dive as Vacancies Rise - The Wall Street Journal 10/7/09 - Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate - The Wall Street Journal 10/7/09 - In the Eye of the Commercial Real-Estate Hurricane - The Wall Street Journal 10/14/09 - An Apartment Complex Teeters - The Wall Street Journal 10/15/09 - Office vacancy rates in Valley hit record - The Arizona Republic 10/16/09 - FBN Exclusive: Obama Briefed on Commercial Real Estate - Fox 10/22/09 - 'Double bubble' means more real estate trouble - MSNBC 10/26/09 - Capmark Files for Bankruptcy With $21 Billion in Debt - Bloomberg 10/30/09 - Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash - Bloomberg 11/17/09 - Insurers Face $23 Billion Loss on Commercial Property - Bloomberg 11/19/09 - Commercial Real Estate Will Collapse - Forbes
Residential real-estate 6/17/09 - California Mortgage Moratorium Gets Banks to Modify Loans - Realtor.com 8/25/09 - Fewer Catching Up on Lapsed Mortgages - The Wall Street Journal 8/20/09 - Record number of Americans in mortgage woes - MSNBC/AP 9/9/09 - Sounding the ARM Alarm - The Wall Street Journal 9/10/09 - U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month - Bloomberg ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/17/09 - "Option" mortgages to explode, officials warn - Reuters 9/18/09 - Housing Agency's Cash Reserves Will Drop Below Requirement - Washington Post 9/24/09 - Existing home sales drop 2.7% to 5.10 million - MarketWatch 9/30/09 - Mortgage demand falls despite lower rates - MSNBC/Reuters 9/30/09 - Foreclosures, Delinquencies Continue to Rise - The Wall Street Journal 10/8/09 - U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout, Experts Say - The New York Times 10/13/09 - Foreclosures Grow in Housing Market's Top Tiers - The Wall Street Journal 10/14/09 - Letter of the day? W - MarketWatch 10/15/09 - U.S. foreclosure filings rose in third quarter - MarketWatch 10/15/09 - Mountain of modifications - MarketWatch 10/20/09 - Housing starts flat in September at 590,000 pace - MarketWatch 10/22/09 - Home prices fall 0.3% in August, FHFA says - MarketWatch 10/23/09 - U.S. Economy: Existing Home Sales Surge on Tax Credit - Bloomberg 10/28/09 - New home sales take surprise tumble - MSNBC/AP 10/28/09 - Mortgage demand falls again in latest week - MarketWatch 11/2/09 - US tax credit boosts pending home sales - Financial Times 11/5/09 - Fannie Mae Seeks $15 Billion in Aid After Posting Loss - CNBC/AP 11/6/09 - Freddie Mac posts $5 billion loss - Reuters 11/10/09 - Home prices fall in most U.S. cities - MSNBC/AP 11/12/09 - FHA reserves fall below 2% minimum, auditor says - MarketWatch 11/18/09 - Housing starts stage broad retreat in October - MarketWatch 11/19/09 - Delinquencies, foreclosures break record - MarketWatch 11/24/09 - One in Four Borrowers Is Underwater - The Wall Street Journal 12/10/09 - U.S. Foreclosures to Reach 3.9 Million in Second Record Year - Bloomberg 12/21/09 - Serious U.S. mortgage delinquencies up 20 percent - Yahoo Finance/Reuters 12/23/09 - New-home sales crater as subsidy wanes - MarketWatch 1/5/10 - Housing rebound totters as pending sales slide - MSNBC/AP 1/25/10 - Home sales tumble as first-time buyers back off - MSNBC/AP 1/26/10 - Flaws plague foreclosure relief program - MSNBC 1/26/10 - Home prices dip in November, Case-Shiller says - MarketWatch 1/26/10 - Existing-home sales take a big fall in December - The Washington Post Banking industry 8/27/09 - FDIC says it doesn’t need to borrow, for now - MSNBC/AP 8/27/09 - FDIC: Number of troubled banks rises to 416 - MarketWatch.com Q2 2009 - Quarterly Banking Profile - FDIC 8/14/09 - Toxic Loans Topping 5% May Push 150 Banks to Point of No Return - Bloomberg.com 8/31/09 - What Banks Are Really Doing With Foreclosures - CNBC.com 8/13/09 - Next Bubble to Burst Is Banks’ Big Loan Values: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg.com 8/24/09 - Bove: Another 150-200 Bank Failures Coming - The Business Insider 8/24/09 - US May See 150-200 More Bank Failures: Bove - CNBC.com 8/21/09 - Meredith Whitney Predicts More Than 300 Bank Failures - Bloomberg.com ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/25/09 - U.S. large-loan bank losses triple to $53 billion - Reuters 10/1/09 - Banks Have Us Flying Blind on Depth of Losses: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg 10/2/09 - Banks With 20% Unpaid Loans at 18-Year High Amid Recovery Doubt - Bloomberg 10/16/09 - Bank of America posts $2.2 billion loss - MarketWatch 10/16/09 - Muted Cheer as Citi Posts Profit - The Wall Street Journal 10/23/09 - 7 more U.S. banks shut down: 106 have failed in 2009 - MarketWatch 10/26/09 - US Bank Charge-Off Rates Exceed Depression: Moody's - Reuters 10/30/09 - 9 more U.S. banks fail - MarketWatch 11/13/09 - Bank failure toll reaches 123 - CNN Money 11/17/09 - TARP Can't Save Some Banks - The Wall Street Journal 11/17/09 - Small business loans: $10 billion evaporates - CNN Money 12/5/09 - AmTrust, three Georgia banks closed by regulators - MarketWatch 12/30/09 - Report: Feds to give GMAC another $3.5 billion - MSNBC 1/18/10 - Banks pull another $1 billion from small business lending - CNN Money 1/19/10 - Citigroup posts $7.6 billion quarterly loss - MSNBC/AP 1/20/10 - Bank of America's quarterly loss widens on TARP payback - MarketWatch Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) 3/6/09 - Bill Seeks to Let FDIC Borrow up to $500 Billion - The Wall Street Journal 8/27/09 - FDIC says it doesn’t need to borrow, for now - MSNBC/AP ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/18/09 - FDIC Considers Borrowing From Treasury to Shore Up Deposit Insurance - The Wall Street Journal 9/29/09 - FDIC seeks 3 years of prepayments from banks - MarketWatch 10/14/09 - FDIC bank fund in the red until 2012 - CNN 11/6/09 - California bank failure will cost FDIC $1.4 billion - MarketWatch 11/13/09 - Orion Bank closed as insurance fund takes $1 billion hit - MarketWatch 11/24/09 - FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund Sinks To Negative Territory - The Wall Street Journal State budgets 7/17/09 - Report: State tax revenues see record drop - Stateline.org 7/31/09 - Ala. County Prepares for Government Shutdown - ABCNEWS.com/AP 8/19/09 - California to get $1.5-billion loan from JPMorgan Chase - LA Times 9/1/09 - Cities Brace for a Prolonged Bout of Declining Tax Revenues - The Wall Street Journal 9/2/09 - Unions Contest Move to Close Rhode Island State Offices - The Wall Street Journal 9/4/09 - States Shut Down to Save Cash - The Wall Street Journal ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/21/09 - California's RANs may yield under 2% - MarketWatch 9/29/09 - States' Quarterly Tax Revenue Plunges 17% - The Wall Street Journal 9/30/09 - MI House passes interim budget as deadline nears - Chicago Tribune 10/4/09 - Recession's end marks start of states' budget woes - Associated Press 10/5/09 - Schwarzenegger Bond Yields Plunge as $4.5 Billion Sale Readied - Bloomberg 10/5/09 - New York Income Tax Revenue Falls 36% in Year, Paterson Says - Bloomberg 10/6/09 - Comptroller: State Finances A Mounting Crisis - CBS 10/9/09 - U.S. states suffer "unbelievable" revenue shortages - Reuters 10/10/09 - California Budget Is Already in the Red 10 Weeks After Passage - Bloomberg 10/15/09 - More Pain for State's Taxpayers, Cities - The Wall Street Journal 10/15/09 - State Revenue Falls Most Since 1963 on Incomes, Sales - Bloomberg 11/11/09 - 10 states face financial peril - CNN Money 11/12/09 - States Draw Up Plans for Year of Even Bigger Budget Cuts - The Wall Street Journal 1/6/10 - Schwarzenegger wants more federal money for California - Reuters 1/13/10 - California debt rating cut as cash crunch looms - Reuters 1/16/10 - Illinois' state budget woes second only to California - Chicago Sun-Times Retail and automotives 8/13/09 - ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES - U.S. Census Bureau 8/14/09 - Retailers See Back-to-School Sales Slowing - New York Times 8/17/09 - Embattled CIT Group dodges bankruptcy - MSNBC/AP 8/25/09 - Cash for clunkers: Top 10 most popular new cars and trade ins - ConsumerReports 8/31/09 - Small retailers feel sharper pinch - MSNBC 9/1/09 - ICSC-Goldman Store Sales - Econoday 9/2/09 - Did Cash For Clunkers Work? - Forbes ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/29/09 - Car makers to assess damage from clunker aftermath - MarketWatch 9/30/09 - CIT scrambling to line up 11th hour rescue: reports - MarketWatch 10/1/09 - GM's Sales Slide 45%; Chrysler's Fall 42% - The Wall Street Journal 10/9/09 - China Prepares for Deep Freeze in Holiday Profits - Fox News 10/28/09 - GMAC Asks for Fresh Lifeline - The Wall Street Journal 10/30/09 - Consumer spending retreats after clunkers program ends - MarketWatch 11/1/09 - CIT files for bankruptcy protection after rescues fail - MarketWatch 11/3/09 - GM, Chrysler facing more shortfalls - The Washington Times 11/5/09 - October retail sales fall short for many - Reuters 11/16/09 - GM has post-bankruptcy loss of $1.15 billion - MarketWatch 11/24/09 - Restaurants brace for a sour season as consumers lose appetite for dining out - LA Times 12/3/09 - Early holiday promotions fail to live up to November promise - MarketWatch Unemployment Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - Bureau of Labor Statistics 7/17/09 - Over Half a Million to Exhaust Benefits by End of September; 1.5 Million by End of ‘09 - National Employment Law Project 9/1/09 - Unemployment Still Rising in U.S. Metros; El Centro, Calif. Jobless Rate Hits 30% - The Wall Street Journal 9/4/09 - Unemployment rate rises to 26-year high - Reuters ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/29/09 - Whole Foods to Food Banks - Washington Post 10/2/09 - Job losses accelerate to 263,000 in September - MarketWatch 10/2/09 - U.S. Job Losses May Be Even Larger as Labor’s Model Breaks Down - Bloomberg 10/29/09 - 30,000 stimulus jobs figure is way off the mark - MSNBC/AP 11/6/09 - Unemployment rate hits 10.2% in October - MarketWatch 11/20/09 - State, local budget cuts a "time bomb" for U.S. jobs - Reuters 2/4/10 - Initial jobless claims at highest level since mid-December - MarketWatch Confidence President Obama Job Approval - Real Clear Politics 8/14/09 - U.S. Economy: Consumer Sentiment Falls, Prices Steady - Bloomberg 9/8/09 - Consumer Reports Index Finds Increased Credit Card Woes Help Drive Consumer Sentiment to Lowest Level in the Past Seven Months - Reuters ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/29/09 - Consumer confidence slips in September - MarketWatch 10/16/09 - Consumer sentiment falls unexpectedly - MSNBC/Reuters 10/19/09 - Home builders' confidence slips in October - MarketWatch 10/27/09 - Consumer confidence slips unexpectedly - MSNBC/AP 10/30/09 - US consumer sentiment dips in Oct - survey - Reuters 11/10/09 - Confidence in Obama slips more, poll shows - MSNBC/AP 11/13/09 - Consumer sentiment pulls back in Nov.: U. of Mich. - MarketWatch 11/24/09 - Consumer Confidence Improves Slightly in November - Fox 11/25/09 - Consumer sentiment edges higher but down for month - MarketWatch
Foreign diversification 11/19/08 - Japan economists call for 'Obama bonds' - Asia Times 5/12/09 - Japan 'would avoid dollar bonds' - BBC 6/7/09 - Top China banker calls for U.S. sales of yuan bonds - Reuters 6/8/09 - Top Chinese banker Guo Shuqing calls for wider use of yuan - Telegraph 7/7/09 - Yuan Ascendent: Cross-Border Trade Uses Chinese Currency - The Wall Street Journal 8/3/09 - China Set to Buy $50 Billion in IMF Notes - The Wall Street Journal 8/21/09 - America May Need to Find Another Financier - New York Times 9/6/09 - China alarmed by US money printing - Telegraph ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 10/5/09 - The G-7 Abandons The Dollar - Forbes 10/12/09 - Dollar Reaches Breaking Point as Banks Shift Reserves - Bloomberg 10/26/09 - Dollar Falls on PBOC Official's Call to Adjust Reserves - The Wall Street Journal 10/28/09 - Turkey to use national currencies in trade with Iran, China - RIA Novosti 11/3/09 - Gold Climbs to Record as India’s Central Bank Buys IMF Bullion - Bloomberg 11/9/09 - Russia c.bank may cut rates again in '09, buy gold - Reuters 11/23/09 - Iran gained $5 billion on shift from U.S. dollar: state TV - Reuters
Scheduled Near-term Activities U.S. fiscal year-end Open Market Operation - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Financial Management Service - U.S. Treasury 7/31/09 - MONTHLY STATEMENT OF THE PUBLIC DEBT OF THE UNITED STATES - U.S. Treasury ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 10/1/09 - US Senate OKs 1-Mo Emergency Extension Of Federal Government Funding Levels - NASDAQ 10/16/09 - Federal deficit triples from year ago - MSNBC/AP Expiration of Fed programsPermanent OMOs: Treasury - Federal Reserve Bank of New York 8/7/09 - Fed: Stop the presses - Reuters ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/23/09 - FOMC Extends Deadline For MBS, Agency Debt Purchases - Forbes
New regulation 9/4/09 - Outsider Ron Paul finds support for Fed audit - Reuters 9/8/09 - Geithner Asks Congress to Increase Federal Debt Limit - The Wall Street Journal 9/9/09 - Obama to Endorse Public Plan in Speech - The Wall Street Journal ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 10/28/09 - Political Uncertainty Puts Freeze on Small Businesses - The Wall Street Journal 11/8/09 - House passes historic health-care reform bill - MarketWatch Iran deadline 7/10/09 - Obama gives Iran deadline on nuclear program - Washington Times ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/26/09 - U.S., Allies Say Iran Has Secret Nuclear Facility - The Washington Post 10/11/09 - Clinton Says World Will Not Wait Indefinitely on Iran - The New York Times 10/18/09 - 31 die in suicide attack targeting Iran troops - MSNBC 11/29/09 - Iran 'planning 10 new uranium enrichment sites' - BBC 2/1/10 - 'Iran will deliver telling blow to global powers on Feb. 11' - Press TV Uncertain Near-term Activities
Oil price pressure
6/21/09 - Saudi oil production at 12-month low - The National 7/9/09 - China car sales continue to soar - BBC 7/16/09 - Mexico racing against time at Cantarell oil field - Reuters 8/7/09 - U.S. Rigs Rise on Texas Additions, Baker Hughes Says - Bloomberg 8/11/09 - China Imports Record Oil, Iron Ore as Economy Expands - Bloomberg 8/21/09 - Pemex Output Fell 7.8% in July as Cantarell Plunged - Bloomberg ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 10/19/09 - Oil rises near $80 on weaker dollar, higher stock markets - MarketWatch 10/20/09 - Oil hits new one-year high above $80 after report - MarketWatch Interest rate pressure Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates - U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note Yield and other Treasury statistics - The Wall Street Journal ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 12/31/09 - Mortgage Bond Rally May End, Rates Rise as Fed Stops Purchases - Bloomberg 1/7/10 - U.S. Warns Banks to Guard Against Rate-Rise Risks - Bloomberg 2/4/10 - Freddie Mac: Benchmark mortgage rate up to 5.01% - MarketWatch Food price pressure 6/14/09 - A 'time bomb' for world wheat crop - LA Times 8/9/09 - Weak monsoon threatens India food crisis - Financial Times 8/13/09 - Food Firms Warn of Sugar Shortage - The Wall Street Journal 8/17/09 - Severe drought hits China's grain zones - China Daily 8/20/09 - Cattle, crop losses mount in Texas drought - Reuters 9/1/09 - Brazil’s Top Sugar Region May Miss Output Forecast - Bloomberg 9/2/09 - Food Aid Grows in California's Agricultural Heart - The Wall Street Journal ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/30/09 - Sugar Nears Its 28½-Year High, Again - The Wall Street Journal 10/6/09 - Masala dose for food prices - BBC 10/8/09 - Food shortages hit millions in flood-hit India - MSNBC/Associated Press 10/9/09 - Forecast: US orange crop to be down 10 percent - Associated Press 10/30/09 - Late Harvest Sows Problems for Farmers - The Wall Street Journal 11/18/09 - Disaster declaration for farm losses in 5 states - MSNBC/AP 1/6/10 - ‘Florida is not supposed to be cold like this’ - MSNBC/AP U.S. stock markets pressure
BALTIC DRY INDEX (BDI) - Bloomberg CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX (VIX) - Bloomberg S&P 500 Index Statistics - Standard & Poors 6/22/09 - Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years - Bloomberg 8/31/09 - September is actually worst month for stocks - MSNBC/AP 9/1/09 - The cruelest month - MarketWatch ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 10/1/09 - Wall Street marks worst day in 3 months as Q4 begins - Reuters 10/30/09 - US Stocks Close Sharply Lower; DJIA Ends Month Flat - MarketWatch 10/30/09 - VIX Volatility Index Hits Highest Level Since July - The Wall Street Journal 1/29/10 - US Stocks Close Lower, Capping Worst Month Since February '09 - MarketWatch China Credit bubble 8/11/09 - China’s Falling Exports, Loans Signal Stimulus Needed - Bloomberg 8/11/09 - Credit tightening threatens China's 'giant Ponzi scheme' - Telegraph 9/1/09 - Shanghai Index May Drop 25% on Economy, Xie Says - Bloomberg ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 11/23/09 - China regulator warns banks on capital requirements - MarketWatch 11/25/09 - Stimulus-Driven Overcapacity In China Could Swamp World Markets, Says Group - The Wall Street Journal 1/12/10 - China surprises with bank reserve hike, markets hit - Reuters Swine flu 8/29/09 - White House Warns of Massive Swine Flu Spread - ABC News ------ Added since 9/14 article was posted ------ 9/30/09 - Swine flu school closings could cost billions - MSNBC/AP 10/9/09 - 76 U.S. children dead of swine flu as cases rise - MSNBC/AP 10/16/09 - Shortage of shots as more kids die of swine flu - MSNBC/AP 10/24/09 - Obama declares swine flu national emergency - MSNBC 11/2/09 - Employers Brace for Swine-Flu Outbreaks - The Wall Street Journal
Natural disaster
Frequently Asked Questions - NOAA 8/16/09 - Dry conditions, winds leave California open to big fires - CNN
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