Real-time Economic Indicators

 

Many economic indicators are calculated and reported on a periodic basis (i.e. weekly, monthly, quarterly). A few are available throughout each day during the work week. These indicators can give you a sense for the current position of the U.S. economy and signal future trends. Below are several real-time economic indicators (left column) put in context of the recent economic crisis (right column). You may need to refresh your browser to see the most recent indicator data.



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The U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar index broadly reflects the dollar's value against the other major world currencies. A drop in this index reflects a drop in the value of the dollar. The dollar mostly rose since the economic crisis began, as it is historically seen as a safe haven in uncertain times. However, since awareness of the U.S. debt situation has been building, the dollar has been persistently trending downward again.

89 was the approximate peak (in March 2009) of the index since the crisis began.
72 was the approximate low of the index in the past year.

View more detail on the U.S. dollar index history.

 
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Gold

The price of gold is based on a single ounce of the metal. Gold is a great indicator of inflation as people move to gold as a safe haven when the value of paper currency declines. The trust in gold is based on its long history as a prominent stable currency before erratic fiat currency systems were developed. The price of gold generally increases when inflation or inflation prospects increase.

$900 was the approximate price of gold when the crisis began.
$710 was the approximate price at its low since the crisis began.
$1000 was the approximate peak price (in Feb 2009) since hitting its low in this period.

View more detail on gold price history.

 
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Copper

Historically copper is a helpful economic indicator as it is heavily used in building construction, plumbing, electronics, machinery, etc. During periods of economic growth, demand for copper rises causing its price to rise as its supply tries to catch up. As economic deterioration sets in during a downturn, the price of copper tends to fall with it.

$4.10 was the approximate peak price of copper just before the crisis began.
$1.25 was the approximate low price of copper since the crisis began.

View more detail on copper price history.

 

Spot Crude Oil Price

The spot crude oil price marks the price of a barrel of crude oil. The cost of oil largely drives the price of gasoline and other fuels. An increase in the price of oil hurts many areas of the economy as it increases the costs of transportation (personal and business) and the production of many common products. The price of oil spiked and peaked in the summer of 2008 playing a significant role in the lead-up to the crisis.

$147 was the peak price of oil in 2008 just before the crisis began.
$34 was the approximate low price of oil since the crisis began.

View more detail on oil price history.

 


10-Year Note Yield and U.S. Indices

The yield of the 10-year Treasury Note (^TNX) is an important indicator of the status of interest rates as it drives mortgage rates and interest rates of other types of loans. Rising interest rates can cause defaults on various types of loans during times of economic stress.

Through interest rate targets and quantitative easing (i.e. the Fed purchase of Treasurys), the Fed attempts to control interest rates. During the crisis the Fed's goal was to control rates enough to move mortgage rates down to 4% to spur on lending and housing purchases. The 4% mark was never hit and has been rising since its low. As of 6/19/09 the 30-year mortgage rate was 5.58%.

Also listed are major U.S. stock indices, which provide an additional indication of broad market conditions in the U.S. Additionally, powerful drops in U.S. stock markets can have direct negative impact on pension plans and life insurance funds.

BOC = Value at the beginning of the crisis in Fall 2009
LSC = The low value since the beginning of the crisis in Fall 2009 View more detail on the 10-year note yield history.

 

World Indices

The performance of world stock market indices can offer a gauge of business conditions in major economic areas of the world. Some believe international markets will outperform U.S. markets during the crisis and in years to come. The table below outlines the performance of several major countries' stock exchanges during the crisis.

BOC = Value at the beginning of the crisis in Fall 2009
LSC = The low value since the beginning of the crisis in Fall 2009

 

Banks

The banking system is core to the U.S. economy. During the crisis banks were hit hard as a storm of defaulting mortgages hurt their balance sheets. The solvency of many of the largest banks has only been preserved through government bailouts and accounting rules changes to make their balance sheets look healthier than they actually are. Below is the stock price history of 10 of the largest banks during the crisis.

BOC = Value at the beginning of the crisis in Fall 2009
LSC = The low value since the beginning of the crisis in Fall 2009

 


 

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